As we move into the summer months, investors continue to navigate a market environment shaped by rapid technological change, geopolitical uncertainty, and shifting economic expectations. While markets have remained resilient beneath the surface, there are growing signs that investors should remain thoughtful and disciplined in how they approach risk and opportunity in the second half of the year.

This month we examine the growing concentration around artificial intelligence investments, the evolving interest rate outlook, the changing consumer landscape, and what the current economic environment may mean for younger workers entering the labor force.

As we move into May, one of the most familiar phrases in investing tends to resurface: “Sell in May and go away.” This year, that saying may not apply. While headlines remain filled with geopolitical tension and economic uncertainties, the market itself continues to show a notable degree of resilience. Here’s what the Carnegie Investment Team is honing in on for the month.

As we move into April, several familiar forces are converging at once. Tax season is coming to a close, earnings season is set to begin, and renewed geopolitical tensions are influencing markets — most visibly through energy prices. While these may appear to be separate headlines, they are interconnected parts of a broader environment the market is working to process. This is typical for this time of year: periods of short-term uncertainty often emerge even as the underlying, longer-term foundation remains more stable than the headlines suggest.

 From a seasonal perspective, March is not typically known for any major changes in market dynamics. The month is often quieter with tax season emerging, earnings season’s completion, and investors analyzing early-year market direction. Despite the lack of obvious activity, several meaningful developments are unfolding that warrant our investment team’s attention. 

The new year is off to a brisk start, and January has already delivered signs that 2026 may diverge meaningfully from last year’s narrow, tech‑driven rally. Value stocks are leading the way so far, while policy developments from the Trump Administration continue to shape economic headlines. Although it’s still early, we’re closely watching a clear shift in market dynamics to begin to take hold. 

As we embark on 2026, we at Carnegie reflect on a resilient 2025 that saw the S&P 500 deliver solid gains amid headwinds such as tariffs and government budget cutbacks. The market tested many investors through sharp headlines portraying market news and pullbacks as dramatic declines, such as "Dow plummets 500 points," often representing less than 1% moves.  

Our take? Headline-driven commentary is designed to elicit an emotional response (to drive clicks!), but it is often the best time to remember your time horizon. Over longer horizons of 1, 5, or 10 years, these fluctuations pale in comparison to the power of compounding in quality investments. At Carnegie, we remain focused on identifying continual compounders striving to build wealth steadily through economic cycles. 

As we enter 2026, maintaining discipline amid noise remains key, emphasizing long-term horizons over reactionary moves. Below, we share a few larger themes we are watching as we turn the page on 2025. 

“Uncertainty” is the new buzzword. The term has been used repeatedly during earnings calls throughout the past month as company executives described the current state of the operating environment. This uncertainty is driven by the Trump Administration’s fluctuating tariff policy.

What We're Watching in April 2025

Tariffs: A Familiar Headwind with New Implications

Tariffs are once again making headlines — and history offers important perspectives. In 2018, during the first Trump administration, when tariffs were first introduced on a wide scale, markets reacted with caution but quickly digested the implementation once the total amount was clearly defined. Today, a similar narrative is unfolding, though this time the effects are more pronounced — not because tariffs have been enacted, but because of the uncertainty on the final outcome this past month.

The current on-again/off-again conversation about tariffs on imported goods is not new. In fact, before the general income tax was passed in 1913, tariffs were one of the few ways our government had to raise money, often comprising up to 95% of federal revenue. To some extent, tariffs in the developing American economy were part of the rivalry between the agricultural-based economy of the South and the developing industrial-based economy of the North. Some historians have pointed to the Tariff of 1828 (called The Tariff of Abominations), meant to aid small Northern industry, as the starting point for talk of Southern secession, eventually leading up to the Civil War.