“Uncertainty” is the new buzzword. The term has been used repeatedly during earnings calls throughout the past month as company executives described the current state of the operating environment. This uncertainty is driven by the Trump Administration’s fluctuating tariff policy.

What We're Watching in April 2025

Tariffs: A Familiar Headwind with New Implications

Tariffs are once again making headlines — and history offers important perspectives. In 2018, during the first Trump administration, when tariffs were first introduced on a wide scale, markets reacted with caution but quickly digested the implementation once the total amount was clearly defined. Today, a similar narrative is unfolding, though this time the effects are more pronounced — not because tariffs have been enacted, but because of the uncertainty on the final outcome this past month.

The current on-again/off-again conversation about tariffs on imported goods is not new. In fact, before the general income tax was passed in 1913, tariffs were one of the few ways our government had to raise money, often comprising up to 95% of federal revenue. To some extent, tariffs in the developing American economy were part of the rivalry between the agricultural-based economy of the South and the developing industrial-based economy of the North. Some historians have pointed to the Tariff of 1828 (called The Tariff of Abominations), meant to aid small Northern industry, as the starting point for talk of Southern secession, eventually leading up to the Civil War. 

READ: Stocks on Track for Worst Start Since 1942

The first quarter was unusual in that both stocks and bonds were down.  In fact, government bonds experienced their worst quarter in nearly forty years, so even the usual protection that bonds provide in turbulent times did not play out well this time around.  Starting in November, the markets have experienced draconian internal sector and style rotations as, or more extreme than anything I have seen in my 25-year career. Some indices experienced one of their worst starts to a year since the Great Depression, after already experiencing significant drawdowns in the months prior.  Long-duration stocks, which are those where expected earnings and dividends are further in the future – this includes forward looking growth and disruptive innovation stocks – have been strongly sold off.  As of this writing, the well-known ARK Innovation ETF, a proxy for the long-duration disruption innovation space, is down over 49% year-to-date after declining almost 25% in 2021.  

Recently, Carnegie Investment Counsel Portfolio Manager/Regional Director Scott Inglis was a guest of Behind the Numbers, which is a podcast about the “real stories” behind business performance and valuation. Inglis talked with the host, valuation expert and bestselling author Dave Bookbinder. Scott provided detailed insights around demystifying noise in the market place”. Here’s an overview of the conversation.

The U.S. rejoined the 197-nation Paris Climate Accord. Under the accord, the U.S. has committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 50% of 2003 levels. President Biden has also stated that his administration wishes to move the U.S. to net zero emissions by 2050.

There is a great deal of trepidation about the potential economic consequences surrounding this matter. The concern is that it will require a lowering of consumption in the U.S. and even our standard of life.

If these targets are not just posturing but serious goals, they may portend both large government spending and tax incentives. Rejoining the Paris Climate Accord may signify a historical capital spending boom by both government and private businesses.

Inflation is on the minds of many and there is no shortage of price increase anecdotes around the country. From commodities like iron ore and copper doubling in price, to paying MSRP for a year-old car, these observations of rising prices are coloring perceptions about general affordability, the dollar, the central bank and investments.

Whether we are experiencing inflation is not up for debate, however, the prospect of sustainable inflation is definitely debatable. Is it the ‘80s all over again? Can we objectively look at the pandemic-induced supply disruptions, a confluence of weather anomalies, lean manufacturing driven supply chain decisions and a Texas freeze, and call it a structural and sustainable inflation? Not really. At least, not yet.

Are we headed into a time of inflation? Many people and economists are debating this issue right now. In the “real world,” we’ve seen inflation in interesting areas such as Pokémon and NBA Top Shots trading “cards,” which had seen a spike up in prices earlier in the year. Housing prices are certainly rising. Plus, inflation is finding its way into commodities such as food inputs like soybeans, corn and more. Certainly, gas prices are higher at the pump than a year ago. And does it mean inflation is coming because of crazy high auction prices for things such as Jack Dorsey selling his first tweet ever as an NFT (non fungible token) for over $2.9 million?