Carnegie Investment Counsel Blog

Reading the Tea Leaves: How Do We Understand Consumer Confidence?

Posted by Lynn Najman on Jun 5, 2025 10:27:27 AM

A few days ago, the University of Michigan released its final reading for the Consumer Sentiment Index through May. The measure matched the prior month’s reading of 52.2 but remains well below the 71.7 reading we saw in January. The Conference Board’s own release of the Consumer Confidence clocked in at a very high 98, up from the April reading of 85.7 but down from January’s 104. Why are these indices so important to follow, and what are they telling us?

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Topics: Investing

Monthly Market Commentary: June 2025

Posted by Carnegie Investment Counsel on Jun 3, 2025 11:57:41 AM

What We're Watching in June

Summer is here, and while many take time to unwind and travel, the markets remain in constant motion. For those who closely follow financial news, the headlines often point in conflicting directions. At Carnegie, we cut through the noise by staying grounded in long-term fundamentals, thoughtful portfolio positioning, and informed decision-making. 

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Topics: Investing

Economic Tailwinds from AI’s CapEx

Posted by David K. Laidlaw, CFA on May 29, 2025 9:00:01 AM

Economic Tailwinds from AI’s CapEx  

This year, the markets have been driven by the administration’s tariff policies.  When higher than expected tariffs have been threatened or imposed, common stocks and fixed-income securities have lost value. On the other hand, lower tariff rates or delays in the assessment of these taxes have caused the markets to rebound. While these policy changes are extremely important, the secular growth in capital expenditures necessary to build out infrastructure for Artificial Intelligence (AI) is not getting the coverage that it deserves.

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Topics: Investing

Remember to Review Investment Elections in Your Retirement Plans

Posted by Alex M. Velazquez on May 21, 2025 9:00:00 AM

Like many of us, you may remember starting a new job and being handed a stack of onboarding paperwork that consisted of tax forms, health insurance elections, direct deposit info, and somewhere in the mix, your 401(k) enrollment. At this time, you likely picked a contribution percentage and selected a few investment options, sometimes with little context or guidance. For you and many others, that might be the last time that those choices were reviewed or scrutinized.

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Topics: Financial Planning

Uncertainty Drives an Irrelevant Quarter

Posted by Benjamin D. Connard on May 15, 2025 11:00:00 AM

“Uncertainty” is the new buzzword. The term has been used repeatedly during earnings calls throughout the past month as company executives described the current state of the operating environment. This uncertainty is driven by the Trump Administration’s fluctuating tariff policy.

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Topics: Market

Monthly Market Commentary: May 2025

Posted by Carnegie Investment Counsel on May 2, 2025 9:28:27 AM

What We’re Watching in May

As the first quarter of 2025 experienced relative calm in the financial markets, April surprised investors with sharp pullbacks, increased volatility, and rising investor worries. While market swings are nothing new, the reemergence of tariffs, one of the Trump administration’s policy tools, has added uncertainty in the minds of investors and business leaders. For many, this month felt less like a typical bump in the road and more like a sudden derailment.

At Carnegie, we see this moment as a valuable reminder that staying grounded in the face of short-term noise is critical to long-term investing success.

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Topics: Market

Volatility vs Long-Term Trends

Posted by Benjamin D. Connard on May 1, 2025 11:58:44 AM

Volatility vs Long-Term Trends

Volatility in the market has spiked during the last month, coinciding with the Trump Administration’s tariff rollout. The rollout has been accompanied by shifting levels in the tariff, uncertainty when and where they will be implemented, and an escalating trade war with China. Equities have reacted negatively leading to headlines indicating how far the indexes have fallen off the peak.

The resulting chart can be a little unsettling.

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Topics: Investing

Managing Risks for Retirement Spending

Posted by Alex M. Velazquez on Apr 24, 2025 3:05:03 PM

Retirement is about more than just building up savings—it’s also about figuring out how to spend those savings in a way that lasts. One common approach is to use a fixed or “safe” withdrawal strategy, like the “4% rule,” where you spend a set percentage of your portfolio each year. But life doesn’t move in a straight line, and neither does the market. That’s why it’s important to regularly revisit your financial plan to determine whether adjustments to your spending might be needed.

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Topics: Financial Planning

Monthly Market Commentary: April 2025

Posted by Carnegie Investment Counsel on Apr 1, 2025 8:30:00 AM

What We're Watching in April 2025

 

Tariffs: A Familiar Headwind with New Implications

Tariffs are once again making headlines — and history offers important perspectives. In 2018, during the first Trump administration, when tariffs were first introduced on a wide scale, markets reacted with caution but quickly digested the implementation once the total amount was clearly defined. Today, a similar narrative is unfolding, though this time the effects are more pronounced — not because tariffs have been enacted, but because of the uncertainty on the final outcome this past month.

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Topics: Market

A Brief History of Tariffs in the US

Posted by Lynn Najman on Mar 25, 2025 9:32:09 AM

The current on-again/off-again conversation about tariffs on imported goods is not new. In fact, before the general income tax was passed in 1913, tariffs were one of the few ways our government had to raise money, often comprising up to 95% of federal revenue. To some extent, tariffs in the developing American economy were part of the rivalry between the agricultural-based economy of the South and the developing industrial-based economy of the North. Some historians have pointed to the Tariff of 1828 (called The Tariff of Abominations), meant to aid small Northern industry, as the starting point for talk of Southern secession, eventually leading up to the Civil War. 

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Topics: Market

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