What We're Watching in August

It is August, and that means we are in the middle of the “Dog Days of Summer.” However, the stock market is acting like anything but a dog. Stocks continue to rise while inflation data has held steady, and corporate earnings have generally exceeded expectations. Several factors are affecting the long-term outlook, such as uncertainties regarding future Federal Reserve policies, bond market conditions, and patterns in consumer spending. Here is what our investment team is keeping a keen eye on this month. 

We’re witnessing a wave of announcements from companies across multiple sectors, promising trillions of dollars in capital investment into the United States. While some of these commitments remain aspirational, even a portion materializing would mark a significant economic shift. As investors, understanding the magnitude and interconnected nature of these developments can help us identify long-term opportunities. 

Significant lump sum expenses, such as home renovations, weddings, education funding, or a real estate purchase, often require more cash than you may keep on hand. Funding these purchases carries long-term financial implications that should be coordinated with your broader strategy to ensure they do not unintentionally disrupt your progress toward other vital goals. 

What We're Watching in July

As we enter July and the second half of 2025, markets and the economy remain resilient against a backdrop that feels anything but calm. The U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend of June 21–22 introduced a serious geopolitical variable, raising the specter of escalation and potential global conflict. And yet, despite the weight of these headlines, equity markets have moved higher.

In general, earnings growth drives stock prices higher. If investors are willing to pay 20 times earnings for a company, and company earnings grow from $5 per share to $6 per share, the stock price will increase from $100 to $120.

Many grandparents want to support their grandchildren’s education, and a 529 plan remains one of the most effective ways to do that. Recent changes to rules and regulations have given 529s more flexibility, improved tax treatment, and fewer unintended consequences when it comes to financial aid. 

A few days ago, the University of Michigan released its final reading for the Consumer Sentiment Index through May. The measure matched the prior month’s reading of 52.2 but remains well below the 71.7 reading we saw in January. The Conference Board’s own release of the Consumer Confidence clocked in at a very high 98, up from the April reading of 85.7 but down from January’s 104. Why are these indices so important to follow, and what are they telling us?

What We're Watching in June

Summer is here, and while many take time to unwind and travel, the markets remain in constant motion. For those who closely follow financial news, the headlines often point in conflicting directions. At Carnegie, we cut through the noise by staying grounded in long-term fundamentals, thoughtful portfolio positioning, and informed decision-making. 

Economic Tailwinds from AI’s CapEx  

This year, the markets have been driven by the administration’s tariff policies.  When higher than expected tariffs have been threatened or imposed, common stocks and fixed-income securities have lost value. On the other hand, lower tariff rates or delays in the assessment of these taxes have caused the markets to rebound. While these policy changes are extremely important, the secular growth in capital expenditures necessary to build out infrastructure for Artificial Intelligence (AI) is not getting the coverage that it deserves.

Like many of us, you may remember starting a new job and being handed a stack of onboarding paperwork that consisted of tax forms, health insurance elections, direct deposit info, and somewhere in the mix, your 401(k) enrollment. At this time, you likely picked a contribution percentage and selected a few investment options, sometimes with little context or guidance. For you and many others, that might be the last time that those choices were reviewed or scrutinized.