READ: Stocks on Track for Worst Start Since 1942

The first quarter was unusual in that both stocks and bonds were down.  In fact, government bonds experienced their worst quarter in nearly forty years, so even the usual protection that bonds provide in turbulent times did not play out well this time around.  Starting in November, the markets have experienced draconian internal sector and style rotations as, or more extreme than anything I have seen in my 25-year career. Some indices experienced one of their worst starts to a year since the Great Depression, after already experiencing significant drawdowns in the months prior.  Long-duration stocks, which are those where expected earnings and dividends are further in the future – this includes forward looking growth and disruptive innovation stocks – have been strongly sold off.  As of this writing, the well-known ARK Innovation ETF, a proxy for the long-duration disruption innovation space, is down over 49% year-to-date after declining almost 25% in 2021.  

The Big S-Curve

The most common things that typical market observers are currently worried about (partially fueled by the media) revolve around politics, the trade war, interest rates and the timing/depth of the next recession.

It is much less common to hear someone talking about the potential positives. Fears like this are nothing new, and in fact, I cannot remember a time in my career when there wasn't a slew of fears to worry about.

Anyone who follows the equity markets on a stock by stock (or company by company) basis (like me) has likely noticed that the market has experienced a clear shift in behavior since early September.

Some examples of this include:

• Significant strength in the Financial sector with many financial stocks hitting all-time highs
• Significant strength in Industrials, with many at new highs
• A clear shift toward value stocks and away from smaller/newer growth stocks
• A shift away from the previous winners and into the previous losers
• Many of the “S-Curve” plays – see blog from 11/4/19 – have declined
• Weakness in REITS, utilities and consumer staples stocks 
• All-time highs in the major market indices