The new year is off to a brisk start, and January has already delivered signs that 2026 may diverge meaningfully from last year’s narrow, tech‑driven rally. Value stocks are leading the way so far, while policy developments from the Trump Administration continue to shape economic headlines. Although it’s still early, we’re closely watching a clear shift in market dynamics to begin to take hold.
As we embark on 2026, we at Carnegie reflect on a resilient 2025 that saw the S&P 500 deliver solid gains amid headwinds such as tariffs and government budget cutbacks. The market tested many investors through sharp headlines portraying market news and pullbacks as dramatic declines, such as "Dow plummets 500 points," often representing less than 1% moves.
Our take? Headline-driven commentary is designed to elicit an emotional response (to drive clicks!), but it is often the best time to remember your time horizon. Over longer horizons of 1, 5, or 10 years, these fluctuations pale in comparison to the power of compounding in quality investments. At Carnegie, we remain focused on identifying continual compounders striving to build wealth steadily through economic cycles.
As we enter 2026, maintaining discipline amid noise remains key, emphasizing long-term horizons over reactionary moves. Below, we share a few larger themes we are watching as we turn the page on 2025.
With only a month to go before the end of 2025, the financial markets experienced unexpected twists and turns that many didn’t expect during the year. Seasonal trends were cast out the window, economic signals sent mixed messages, and the promise of an AI boom was continually met with skepticism. In the face of this, we at Carnegie continue to focus on clarity, balance, and long-term discipline. From Fed policy and AI spending to the real story behind inflation, here’s what we’re watching closely as the year draws to a close.
Topics: Investing
November has arrived. The leaves may be falling, but equity markets remain supported by strong underlying forces. While investors continue to understand the Fed’s ongoing rate policy, we're keeping our focus on what matters, including capital flows, consumer strength, and the risks quietly forming below the surface.
Topics: Investing
It may be back-to-school season, but markets never took a summer break. Equities are hovering near all-time highs, inflation progress is uneven but improving, and earnings have topped cautious expectations. The backdrop: a potentially pivotal policy moment after the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, where a September rate cut is now squarely on the table. A well-telegraphed, data-dependent cut would ease financing costs for households (mortgages, autos) and corporates (refinancing, capex, M&A); helpful tailwinds as consumers grapple with housing affordability and companies navigate tariffs and supply chains.
Topics: Investing
It is August, and that means we are in the middle of the “Dog Days of Summer.” However, the stock market is acting like anything but a dog. Stocks continue to rise while inflation data has held steady, and corporate earnings have generally exceeded expectations. Several factors are affecting the long-term outlook, such as uncertainties regarding future Federal Reserve policies, bond market conditions, and patterns in consumer spending. Here is what our investment team is keeping a keen eye on this month.
Topics: Investing
As we enter July and the second half of 2025, markets and the economy remain resilient against a backdrop that feels anything but calm. The U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend of June 21–22 introduced a serious geopolitical variable, raising the specter of escalation and potential global conflict. And yet, despite the weight of these headlines, equity markets have moved higher.
Topics: Investing
Summer is here, and while many take time to unwind and travel, the markets remain in constant motion. For those who closely follow financial news, the headlines often point in conflicting directions. At Carnegie, we cut through the noise by staying grounded in long-term fundamentals, thoughtful portfolio positioning, and informed decision-making.
Topics: Investing
As the first quarter of 2025 experienced relative calm in the financial markets, April surprised investors with sharp pullbacks, increased volatility, and rising investor worries. While market swings are nothing new, the reemergence of tariffs, one of the Trump administration’s policy tools, has added uncertainty in the minds of investors and business leaders. For many, this month felt less like a typical bump in the road and more like a sudden derailment.
At Carnegie, we see this moment as a valuable reminder that staying grounded in the face of short-term noise is critical to long-term investing success.
Topics: Market
Tariffs are once again making headlines — and history offers important perspectives. In 2018, during the first Trump administration, when tariffs were first introduced on a wide scale, markets reacted with caution but quickly digested the implementation once the total amount was clearly defined. Today, a similar narrative is unfolding, though this time the effects are more pronounced — not because tariffs have been enacted, but because of the uncertainty on the final outcome this past month.
Topics: Market
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