As we approach mid-summer, investors find themselves navigating two powerful forces: excitement and expectations. From headline-grabbing IPOs to the continued enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence (“AI”), markets are once again being shaped by a combination of innovation, optimism, and speculation. While these themes have helped propel stocks higher, they also serve as a reminder of an enduring investing principle: enthusiasm alone is not a substitute for fundamentals.

In our July commentary, we want to devote time examining the surge in mega-cap IPO activity, what earnings season may reveal about AI-related valuations, the evolving interest rate landscape, and where opportunities may exist beyond the technology sector.

As we move into the summer months, investors continue to navigate a market environment shaped by rapid technological change, geopolitical uncertainty, and shifting economic expectations. While markets have remained resilient beneath the surface, there are growing signs that investors should remain thoughtful and disciplined in how they approach risk and opportunity in the second half of the year.

This month we examine the growing concentration around artificial intelligence investments, the evolving interest rate outlook, the changing consumer landscape, and what the current economic environment may mean for younger workers entering the labor force.

A recent report from The Wall Street Journal highlighted that OpenAI fell short of some of its internal expectations for user growth and revenue in 2026. In addition, ChatGPT did not reach its goal of one billion weekly active users by the end of 2025, instead finishing the year with an estimated ~800 million.

As we move into May, one of the most familiar phrases in investing tends to resurface: “Sell in May and go away.” This year, that saying may not apply. While headlines remain filled with geopolitical tension and economic uncertainties, the market itself continues to show a notable degree of resilience. Here’s what the Carnegie Investment Team is honing in on for the month.

As we move into April, several familiar forces are converging at once. Tax season is coming to a close, earnings season is set to begin, and renewed geopolitical tensions are influencing markets — most visibly through energy prices. While these may appear to be separate headlines, they are interconnected parts of a broader environment the market is working to process. This is typical for this time of year: periods of short-term uncertainty often emerge even as the underlying, longer-term foundation remains more stable than the headlines suggest.

 From a seasonal perspective, March is not typically known for any major changes in market dynamics. The month is often quieter with tax season emerging, earnings season’s completion, and investors analyzing early-year market direction. Despite the lack of obvious activity, several meaningful developments are unfolding that warrant our investment team’s attention. 

The new year is off to a brisk start, and January has already delivered signs that 2026 may diverge meaningfully from last year’s narrow, tech‑driven rally. Value stocks are leading the way so far, while policy developments from the Trump Administration continue to shape economic headlines. Although it’s still early, we’re closely watching a clear shift in market dynamics to begin to take hold. 

After several years of strong market performance, it’s natural for investors to wonder what comes next. 

Will this continue? 
Are we due for a downturn? 
What should investors realistically expect in 2026? 

Let’s not pretend that not even the best analysts and researchers can look into the future and tell you exactly what markets will do next year. But what we can do, and what can offer both clues and confidence, is investigate the past. History offers something far more useful than predictions: perspective. 

Let’s explore some valuable insights and patterns from the past that might help frame more realistic expectations for 2026 and better prepare investors to respond thoughtfully to whatever this year brings. 

As we embark on 2026, we at Carnegie reflect on a resilient 2025 that saw the S&P 500 deliver solid gains amid headwinds such as tariffs and government budget cutbacks. The market tested many investors through sharp headlines portraying market news and pullbacks as dramatic declines, such as "Dow plummets 500 points," often representing less than 1% moves.  

Our take? Headline-driven commentary is designed to elicit an emotional response (to drive clicks!), but it is often the best time to remember your time horizon. Over longer horizons of 1, 5, or 10 years, these fluctuations pale in comparison to the power of compounding in quality investments. At Carnegie, we remain focused on identifying continual compounders striving to build wealth steadily through economic cycles. 

As we enter 2026, maintaining discipline amid noise remains key, emphasizing long-term horizons over reactionary moves. Below, we share a few larger themes we are watching as we turn the page on 2025.