What We're Watching in October

As we move into the final quarter of 2025, the market dynamics remain ripe for analysis filled with both contradiction and opportunity. With recent data revisions, interest rate forecasts, and inflation drivers offering important signals, not just about the economy, but about how to read the headlines. At Carnegie Investment Counsel, we believe staying grounded in facts and context is the key to staying ahead. 

Warren Buffett, the Chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, is widely known for his tried-and-true investment philosophy. His approach is grounded in simplicity, discipline, and a focus on businesses with durable competitive advantages. 

What We're Watching in September

It may be back-to-school season, but markets never took a summer break. Equities are hovering near all-time highs, inflation progress is uneven but improving, and earnings have topped cautious expectations. The backdrop: a potentially pivotal policy moment after the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, where a September rate cut is now squarely on the table. A well-telegraphed, data-dependent cut would ease financing costs for households (mortgages, autos) and corporates (refinancing, capex, M&A); helpful tailwinds as consumers grapple with housing affordability and companies navigate tariffs and supply chains. 

The rising cost of higher education presents a challenge for many families. The good news: with thoughtful planning and the smart use of available tools, these costs can become much more manageable. For parents and grandparents who want to support education goals, understanding the different savings vehicles and tax benefits is key. 

Stablecoins have been around for a little while now, but they’re back in the spotlight thanks to some new legislation—the GENIUS Act. With all the buzz, it’s worth unpacking what stablecoins are, why they’re gaining traction globally, and whether they really matter for the average U.S. consumer.

Let’s start from the top.

What We're Watching in August

It is August, and that means we are in the middle of the “Dog Days of Summer.” However, the stock market is acting like anything but a dog. Stocks continue to rise while inflation data has held steady, and corporate earnings have generally exceeded expectations. Several factors are affecting the long-term outlook, such as uncertainties regarding future Federal Reserve policies, bond market conditions, and patterns in consumer spending. Here is what our investment team is keeping a keen eye on this month. 

We’re witnessing a wave of announcements from companies across multiple sectors, promising trillions of dollars in capital investment into the United States. While some of these commitments remain aspirational, even a portion materializing would mark a significant economic shift. As investors, understanding the magnitude and interconnected nature of these developments can help us identify long-term opportunities. 

What We're Watching in July

As we enter July and the second half of 2025, markets and the economy remain resilient against a backdrop that feels anything but calm. The U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend of June 21–22 introduced a serious geopolitical variable, raising the specter of escalation and potential global conflict. And yet, despite the weight of these headlines, equity markets have moved higher.

In general, earnings growth drives stock prices higher. If investors are willing to pay 20 times earnings for a company, and company earnings grow from $5 per share to $6 per share, the stock price will increase from $100 to $120.

A few days ago, the University of Michigan released its final reading for the Consumer Sentiment Index through May. The measure matched the prior month’s reading of 52.2 but remains well below the 71.7 reading we saw in January. The Conference Board’s own release of the Consumer Confidence clocked in at a very high 98, up from the April reading of 85.7 but down from January’s 104. Why are these indices so important to follow, and what are they telling us?