What We're Watching in July

As we enter July and the second half of 2025, markets and the economy remain resilient against a backdrop that feels anything but calm. The U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend of June 21–22 introduced a serious geopolitical variable, raising the specter of escalation and potential global conflict. And yet, despite the weight of these headlines, equity markets have moved higher.

In general, earnings growth drives stock prices higher. If investors are willing to pay 20 times earnings for a company, and company earnings grow from $5 per share to $6 per share, the stock price will increase from $100 to $120.

A few days ago, the University of Michigan released its final reading for the Consumer Sentiment Index through May. The measure matched the prior month’s reading of 52.2 but remains well below the 71.7 reading we saw in January. The Conference Board’s own release of the Consumer Confidence clocked in at a very high 98, up from the April reading of 85.7 but down from January’s 104. Why are these indices so important to follow, and what are they telling us?

What We're Watching in June

Summer is here, and while many take time to unwind and travel, the markets remain in constant motion. For those who closely follow financial news, the headlines often point in conflicting directions. At Carnegie, we cut through the noise by staying grounded in long-term fundamentals, thoughtful portfolio positioning, and informed decision-making. 

Economic Tailwinds from AI’s CapEx  

This year, the markets have been driven by the administration’s tariff policies.  When higher than expected tariffs have been threatened or imposed, common stocks and fixed-income securities have lost value. On the other hand, lower tariff rates or delays in the assessment of these taxes have caused the markets to rebound. While these policy changes are extremely important, the secular growth in capital expenditures necessary to build out infrastructure for Artificial Intelligence (AI) is not getting the coverage that it deserves.

Volatility vs Long-Term Trends

Volatility in the market has spiked during the last month, coinciding with the Trump Administration’s tariff rollout. The rollout has been accompanied by shifting levels in the tariff, uncertainty when and where they will be implemented, and an escalating trade war with China. Equities have reacted negatively leading to headlines indicating how far the indexes have fallen off the peak.

The resulting chart can be a little unsettling.

When it comes to years when both stocks and bonds see poor performance, investors may begin to wonder if it’s better to have their money in liquid assets such as cash, as opposed to investments such as bonds and stocks. In other words, is cash king? Let’s see.

When you own shares of a company, whether it’s a single share or thousands of shares, two things you must deal with are proxy voting and corporate class action lawsuits. Both are often quite tedious, but the good news is that when you work with a Carnegie advisor, we can handle them for you. Here’s everything you need to know about proxy voting, corporate class action lawsuits and how Carnegie handles them.

Trends come and go, but some don’t leave before impacting your investments first. The problem is parsing through all the trends and figuring out which will or will not impact your portfolio. Of course, long-term investing is founded on principles that go beyond merely chasing the latest trend. But that doesn’t mean ignoring trends completely. At Carnegie, we believe in striking a balance by remaining aware of trends, but not being shackled to them. With that in mind, here are five megatrends and the impact we expect them to have on the market.

All your hard work over the years has finally paid off and you’re selling your business. This is an exciting time, but it’s also full of decisions that will impact you for the rest of your life. No matter how large your payout, making it last requires planning. Here’s what you need to know to make your funds last a lifetime.