Are we headed into a time of inflation? Many people and economists are debating this issue right now. In the “real world,” we’ve seen inflation in interesting areas such as Pokémon and NBA Top Shots trading “cards,” which had seen a spike up in prices earlier in the year. Housing prices are certainly rising. Plus, inflation is finding its way into commodities such as food inputs like soybeans, corn and more. Certainly, gas prices are higher at the pump than a year ago. And does it mean inflation is coming because of crazy high auction prices for things such as Jack Dorsey selling his first tweet ever as an NFT (non fungible token) for over $2.9 million?

The markets moved dramatically up and down in the third quarter, ending down.  The volatility and decline seems out of sync with the U.S. economy which has continued to show growth, albeit without much in the way of animal spirits.  The U.S. has a historically low unemployment rate, exhibits decent growth in consumer spending and shows improved housing prices and low inflation.  

But, investors do not like uncertainty.  A combination of factors and fears of the unknown appear to be at play.  It is noted that the most dangerous times for financial markets is when “stories” become broken.  A whole crop of stories broke down in the third quarter from “Invincible China” to “Energy Demand Always Growing Faster than Supplies.”   This in turn has resulted in multiple levels of uncertainty:

The recent market sell-off has garnered quite a bit of attention, and we wanted to reach out to let you know our thoughts. We know this kind of market activity is unsettling. This current slide in equity prices feels particularly unpleasant, since the market has been mostly placid this year and has been on a steady advance the last six years.