What We're Watching in December 

 With only a month to go before the end of 2025, the financial markets experienced unexpected twists and turns that many didn’t expect during the year. Seasonal trends were cast out the window, economic signals sent mixed messages, and the promise of an AI boom was continually met with skepticism. In the face of this, we at Carnegie continue to focus on clarity, balance, and long-term discipline. From Fed policy and AI spending to the real story behind inflation, here’s what we’re watching closely as the year draws to a close. 

OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, expects to end 2025 with an annualized run rate of revenue over $20 billion; its fourth quarter revenue will be about $5B. OpenAI’s CEO Sam Altman predicts revenue will grow to hundreds of billions by 2030. 2030 is also when the company is guiding positive free cash flow. Essentially, the company will have cash after paying all operating and maintenance costs. The common definition of free cash flow is Cash from Operations (CFO) minus Capital Expenditures.  

For over twenty years, I have assisted clients in navigating market fluctuations, tax changes, and life transitions. Recently, I have encountered a new challenge: helping clients who do not have a trusted contact listed. In rare situations, it may be necessary to reach out to someone who can check on you if you are unwell or experiencing difficulties. 

Most financial plans consider two key points in time: when you're fully able to manage your finances and when someone else legally takes over. However, there is often a vulnerable middle ground where your confidence and understanding can begin to diminish well before any formal diagnosis occurs. This gap may not be addressed in your financial plan, potentially putting your wealth at risk. Furthermore, this issue can be more pronounced for individuals who have no children, close family, or friends to support them. 

It may feel like a difficult topic to bring up, but it's a simple fix that can have great impact later. Let's discuss the importance of adding a trusted contact.  

Electricity prices are climbing as tech giants like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft build massive data centers to train and run their Artificial Intelligence (AI) models. These facilities are the digital backbone of today’s AI revolution,  but they’re also consuming staggering amounts of power.

What We're Watching in November

November has arrived. The leaves may be falling, but equity markets remain supported by strong underlying forces. While investors continue to understand the Fed’s ongoing rate policy, we're keeping our focus on what matters, including capital flows, consumer strength, and the risks quietly forming below the surface.  

Imagine your good fortune when checking portfolio balances and you notice that the value of a single stock holding in your portfolio has increased in value by more than an entire year of income! ‘Impossible!’ you say? Not so! At Carnegie, we have witnessed this happy situation more than once over the years.

What We're Watching in October

As we move into the final quarter of 2025, the market dynamics remain ripe for analysis filled with both contradiction and opportunity. With recent data revisions, interest rate forecasts, and inflation drivers offering important signals, not just about the economy, but about how to read the headlines. At Carnegie Investment Counsel, we believe staying grounded in facts and context is the key to staying ahead. 

Warren Buffett, the Chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, is widely known for his tried-and-true investment philosophy. His approach is grounded in simplicity, discipline, and a focus on businesses with durable competitive advantages. 

What We're Watching in September

It may be back-to-school season, but markets never took a summer break. Equities are hovering near all-time highs, inflation progress is uneven but improving, and earnings have topped cautious expectations. The backdrop: a potentially pivotal policy moment after the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, where a September rate cut is now squarely on the table. A well-telegraphed, data-dependent cut would ease financing costs for households (mortgages, autos) and corporates (refinancing, capex, M&A); helpful tailwinds as consumers grapple with housing affordability and companies navigate tariffs and supply chains. 

The rising cost of higher education presents a challenge for many families. The good news: with thoughtful planning and the smart use of available tools, these costs can become much more manageable. For parents and grandparents who want to support education goals, understanding the different savings vehicles and tax benefits is key.