Economic Tailwinds from AI’s CapEx  

This year, the markets have been driven by the administration’s tariff policies.  When higher than expected tariffs have been threatened or imposed, common stocks and fixed-income securities have lost value. On the other hand, lower tariff rates or delays in the assessment of these taxes have caused the markets to rebound. While these policy changes are extremely important, the secular growth in capital expenditures necessary to build out infrastructure for Artificial Intelligence (AI) is not getting the coverage that it deserves.

Like many of us, you may remember starting a new job and being handed a stack of onboarding paperwork that consisted of tax forms, health insurance elections, direct deposit info, and somewhere in the mix, your 401(k) enrollment. At this time, you likely picked a contribution percentage and selected a few investment options, sometimes with little context or guidance. For you and many others, that might be the last time that those choices were reviewed or scrutinized.

“Uncertainty” is the new buzzword. The term has been used repeatedly during earnings calls throughout the past month as company executives described the current state of the operating environment. This uncertainty is driven by the Trump Administration’s fluctuating tariff policy.

Volatility vs Long-Term Trends

Volatility in the market has spiked during the last month, coinciding with the Trump Administration’s tariff rollout. The rollout has been accompanied by shifting levels in the tariff, uncertainty when and where they will be implemented, and an escalating trade war with China. Equities have reacted negatively leading to headlines indicating how far the indexes have fallen off the peak.

The resulting chart can be a little unsettling.

Retirement is about more than just building up savings—it’s also about figuring out how to spend those savings in a way that lasts. One common approach is to use a fixed or “safe” withdrawal strategy, like the “4% rule,” where you spend a set percentage of your portfolio each year. But life doesn’t move in a straight line, and neither does the market. That’s why it’s important to regularly revisit your financial plan to determine whether adjustments to your spending might be needed.

What We're Watching in April 2025

Tariffs: A Familiar Headwind with New Implications

Tariffs are once again making headlines — and history offers important perspectives. In 2018, during the first Trump administration, when tariffs were first introduced on a wide scale, markets reacted with caution but quickly digested the implementation once the total amount was clearly defined. Today, a similar narrative is unfolding, though this time the effects are more pronounced — not because tariffs have been enacted, but because of the uncertainty on the final outcome this past month.

The current on-again/off-again conversation about tariffs on imported goods is not new. In fact, before the general income tax was passed in 1913, tariffs were one of the few ways our government had to raise money, often comprising up to 95% of federal revenue. To some extent, tariffs in the developing American economy were part of the rivalry between the agricultural-based economy of the South and the developing industrial-based economy of the North. Some historians have pointed to the Tariff of 1828 (called The Tariff of Abominations), meant to aid small Northern industry, as the starting point for talk of Southern secession, eventually leading up to the Civil War. 

As the April 15th tax filing deadline approaches, March is the ideal time to revisit your tax strategy, especially for families with trusts or more complex financial situations. By proactively addressing key tax areas, you can potentially reduce your tax liability and better position yourself for future financial success. Here are five essential tax strategies to consider this season: