Carnegie Investment Counsel Blog

Monthly Market Commentary: March 2025

Posted by Carnegie Investment Counsel on Mar 3, 2025 9:30:00 AM

Tax Policy and Potential Changes to Social Security, Tips, and Overtime

One of the most anticipated aspects of President Trump’s proposed tax policies is curtailing taxes on Social Security earnings, tips, and overtime pay. The proposed budget makes no mention of these structural taxation changes for these income streams, and it remains to be seen if it is addressed in the upcoming negotiations related to the extension of the Tax Cuts & Jobs Act provisions.

President Trump’s tax plan proposes favoring specific forms of income. Initial projections from the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP) group show the upper two brackets of earners will benefit, as these households are more likely to take full advantage of the carve-outs. Meanwhile, lower- and moderate-income households may see little benefit due to existing exemptions and the progressive tax structure. While details remain subject to legislative negotiations, these potential changes will be closely watched to assess their long-term implications. Source: https://itep.org/a-distributional-analysis-of-donald-trumps-tax-plan-2024/ 


Defense Sector Underperformance Under GOP Leadership 

Historically, defense stocks have performed well under Republican administrations, yet to the start of 2025, we have seen an unexpected downturn for the sector. Despite geopolitical turmoil, many traditional defense names have struggled. The shift in focus from large-scale weapons programs to modern warfare technologies, such as drones, AI-driven defense systems, and cyber intelligence, has disrupted legacy defense contractors.

Lockheed Martin, for instance, has faced headwinds due to its continued emphasis on conventional military hardware, while companies like Northrop Grumman, which has a stronger presence in space and intelligence systems, have fared better. Emerging players such as Palantir and privately-held Anduril (not public) are also benefiting from this strategic shift. Impacts on the Pentagon’s budget are creating additional volatility. As defense spending priorities evolve, we pay close attention to sector reallocations and potential policy-driven catalysts.

 

Consumer Confidence and Inflation Expectations 

After a red-hot start in January for markets, the latest consumer confidence readings highlight a notable shift in sentiment and have tempered market exuberance, with revised figures from the University of Michigan showing a significant jump in inflation expectations. The five-year outlook climbed to 3.5% in February 2025, marking the highest level since 1995. This surge in inflation expectations is particularly concerning for interest rate-sensitive sectors like housing, where affordability is already strained.

Market participants will be closely watching the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for March 18-19, where we will hear from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on the Federal Reserve’s outlook for inflation and the potential for rate cuts. While equity markets appear to be pricing in a relatively optimistic outcome, the bond market suggests greater uncertainty. If inflation expectations continue to rise, the Fed may be forced to adopt a more hawkish stance, which could weigh on interest rate-sensitive investments. 

 

Personal Finance: 401(k) Super Catch-Up Contributions 

For individuals approaching retirement, 2025 brings an important new opportunity: the super catch-up contribution for 401(k) participants aged 60 to 63. This provision allows for an additional $11,250 in contributions beyond standard limits of $23,500, helping individuals bolster their retirement savings in the crucial final years before retirement.

As tax and retirement policies continue evolving, reviewing contribution strategies to maximize potential benefits is essential. For those within this age bracket, Carnegie’s advisors are prepared to help you fully leverage available opportunities and optimize your long-term financial plans. 

 

Final Thoughts

With market conditions shifting, investors should remain adaptable. Understanding the macroeconomic landscape, from tax policy changes and defense sector reallocations to rising inflation concerns, is essential for strategic investment positioning. The Carnegie team closely monitors these developments and remains committed to guiding clients through the complexities of today’s financial markets.

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Topics: Market

2025 Heckerling Insights

Posted by Carnegie Investment Counsel on Feb 25, 2025 3:28:34 PM

2025 Heckerling Insights: Top Takeaways from the Premier Conference for Wealth and Estate Planning 

The Heckerling Estate Planning Institute, sponsored by the University of Miami (Coral Gables) School of Law, was held in Orlando, FL, the week of January 12th. This was the 59th consecutive year of the conference, bringing together more than 4,100 attendees, consisting of wealth managers, probate attorneys, accountants, life insurance professionals, trust officers, charitable planned giving officers, financial planners and IRS Estate and Gift Tax Agents. Heckerling is the largest such gathering and has long been regarded as the Platinum Standard for practitioners representing clients throughout the U.S. and abroad. Each session is conducted by a distinguished probate practitioner or law school scholar. Discussed below are some of the current pressing topics of interest to clients served by Carnegie Investment Counsel.

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Topics: Financial Planning

Federal Solar Tax Credit for Savvy Investors: Save With the Sun

Posted by Carnegie Investment Counsel on Nov 1, 2023 9:00:00 AM

As the world increasingly embraces sustainable energy solutions, the popularity of solar panels has soared for both residential and commercial energy generation. Beyond the environmental benefits, solar energy offers a plethora of tax incentives , like the federal solar tax credit, that can significantly bolster the financial position of savvy individuals. 

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Topics: Taxes

Successful Financial Planning During Divorce: Building a Secure Future

Posted by Carnegie Investment Counsel on Oct 18, 2023 9:30:00 AM

Divorce can be emotionally and financially challenging, but with careful financial planning during divorce, you can navigate this difficult phase with confidence. Here are the financial strategies you need to get through this arduous time and build a secure future.

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Topics: Financial Planning

Are You Raising Financially Responsible Children? 6 Tips to Empower the Next Generation

Posted by Carnegie Investment Counsel on Oct 4, 2023 10:00:00 AM

As a parent, you want to prepare your children to navigate the world confidently, and that includes the world of money. Instilling healthy financial habits from an early age will help set them on the path to being financially responsible children. But how do you know if you’re instilling those essential habits? Here are six tips: 

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Topics: Financial Planning

Early Retirement: Strategies and Factors to Consider

Posted by Carnegie Investment Counsel on Sep 6, 2023 1:37:00 PM

Early retirement can be an enticing idea, but it requires careful consideration and planning.

Retirement…the golden phase of life that many of us aspire to achieve, where we can bid farewell to the daily grind and embrace the freedom to pursue our passions. Yet there is a lot to consider before making the leap, even if you have the financial resources available. 

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Which Retirement Savings Account Is Right for You? Optimizing Retirement Savings

Posted by Carnegie Investment Counsel on Aug 25, 2023 9:45:37 AM

What do you see when you envision your retirement? Are you on a sailboat in the Mediterranean? Baking cookies with your laughing grandchildren? Starting up that small business you were always passionate about? Writing that book like you always wanted? Realizing your dreams requires financial resources and a well-structured plan that optimizes savings and minimizes tax burdens.

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When to Claim Social Security: Factors to Consider When Deciding on Benefits

Posted by Carnegie Investment Counsel on Aug 16, 2023 4:48:00 PM

Social Security benefits play a crucial role in retirement planning, and deciding when to claim them can have a significant impact on your financial future. Making an informed decision requires careful consideration of several factors. So, how do you know the optimal time to claim Social Security benefits?

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Portfolio Risk Management: Navigating a Volatile Market with Effective Strategies

Posted by Carnegie Investment Counsel on Aug 2, 2023 10:16:00 AM

Navigating the market can be challenging even in favorable conditions, but the task becomes even more daunting during periods of volatility. It's especially beneficial to rely on effective portfolio risk management strategies during those times. 

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Preserving Your Wealth for Generations to Come: How to Build a Legacy of Financial Stability

Posted by Carnegie Investment Counsel on Jul 17, 2023 2:12:42 PM

Building wealth is a significant achievement but preserving it for future generations is another accomplishment entirely. A legacy of financial stability requires careful planning and strategic decision-making because wealth preservation goes beyond accumulating assets; it involves a comprehensive approach to protecting and growing wealth while minimizing risks and mitigating potential challenges. 

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