Carnegie Market Blog


Exponential Human Growth

Posted by Brent Luce on Dec 23, 2016 2:15:09 PM


Have a Great Holiday!

This will likely be the last holiday of the year.  I wish all the blog readers and their families a Happy Holiday!  Since some of you probably already tuned out, I will make today’s blog light and visual. 

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Topics: Artificial Intelligence, Technological Change, Exponential Change

Whiskey Bubbles and the Land of Champions

Posted by Brent Luce on Oct 18, 2016 4:21:38 PM

 Whiskey ETF?

I have written on numerous occasions (Look Back at Blog about ETF Proliferation) about the proliferation of ETFs and the unintended consequences that might come along with this trend.  Believe it or not, there is now a Whiskey ETF where investors invest in the so called “Bourbon and Whiskey Economy”.  I am not sure if this is more indicative of a bubble in Whiskey or ETFs, but the answer is probably both.  I wonder if all of those “passive” investors out there will have an appetite, or thirst if you will, in this latest ETF? Read More: Bottom's Up:  There is Now a Whiskey ETF 

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Topics: Artificial Intelligence, ETF proliferation, Whiskey and Bourbon Economy, Teen Trends

Is "Low Beta" Really Low Beta?

Posted by Brent Luce on Oct 11, 2016 4:35:42 PM


Low Beta Underperforming

The chart below, from Strategas, highlights the fact that “low beta” stocks have dramatically underperformed “high beta” stocks over the past 65 days.  I have talked about this before (Read:  The Sleeping Dog has Woken), but the market has become quite comfortable with their allegedly low beta stocks over the last year or two.  What they may not realize is that a massive amount of money has chased these stocks, not because they are safe, cheap or have good fundamentals, but because they pay high dividends.  Dividends, of course, have become very attractive in such a low interest rate environment.  This has potentially made the formerly low beta (remember, beta is a backward looking calculation) stocks into those that carry the most risk if the market begins to believe that interest rates are going higher.  This has already happened to some extent.  If you look at most staples, REITs, telecom or utilities stocks, which were big winners through July, they are all down measurablyfrom their highs and have been weaker than the general market.

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Topics: Artificial Intelligence, Internet, Low Beta, Correclation

Harvard Endowment Poor Performance and A.I.

Posted by Brent Luce on Sep 29, 2016 4:06:02 PM


A.I. Story of the Week

If I wrote the blog more than once a week or so, I would call this the story of the day.  Every day, there are new stories about new developments and advancements in artificial intelligence and related technologies. One story that grabbed my attention this week (Click Here to Read It) discusses how Hanover, a Microsoft machine learning project, is using A.I. to help treat cancer.  With hundreds of cancer drugs and new research being published constantly, along with the uniqueness of each patient and their likelihood to respond to a given therapy, it is impossible for doctors to know everything there is to know in order to best treat the patient.  A.I. can come up with insights without being specifically programmed to do so by “reading through” research papers, clinical trials, medical records, radiology reports, etc.  This is amazing technology, and we are just scratching the surface of its potential.   RELATED:  Why Deep Learning is Suddenly Changing your Life  - this is a good intro to A.I. and deep learning.

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Topics: Apple, Artificial Intelligence, Harvard Endowment, A.I.

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