The new year is off to a brisk start, and January has already delivered signs that 2026 may diverge meaningfully from last year’s narrow, tech‑driven rally. Value stocks are leading the way so far, while policy developments from the Trump Administration continue to shape economic headlines. Although it’s still early, we’re closely watching a clear shift in market dynamics to begin to take hold. 

After several years of strong market performance, it’s natural for investors to wonder what comes next. 

Will this continue? 
Are we due for a downturn? 
What should investors realistically expect in 2026? 

Let’s not pretend that not even the best analysts and researchers can look into the future and tell you exactly what markets will do next year. But what we can do, and what can offer both clues and confidence, is investigate the past. History offers something far more useful than predictions: perspective. 

Let’s explore some valuable insights and patterns from the past that might help frame more realistic expectations for 2026 and better prepare investors to respond thoughtfully to whatever this year brings. 

Most people seem to avoid this topic, not because they don’t care, but because they don’t know where to start. However, having the right documents and details organized ahead of time can remove a huge amount of confusion and emotional strain later.  

This article outlines the essentials. For help organizing everything in one clear place, download our free guide. This is not legal advice, and it’s not about drafting documents. This checklist is about making sure the right information exists and can be found when it matters most.  

Last month, many found themselves entertaining fantastical “what-if” scenarios should they beat the odds and pick the winning Powerball numbers. Despite the low likelihood of suddenly becoming a billionaire, many will spend more time considering such an outcome than they will thinking about the more realistic scenarios that can result in receiving a windfall. Benjamin Connard, CFA, Principal of Carnegie, discussed this very thing with Fox5. 

Whether from an inheritance, the sale of a business or property, a divorce settlement, or insurance proceeds, a sudden influx of wealth can be life changing. While the opportunities are substantial, so are the complexities. Many individuals find themselves unsure of where to begin, what questions to ask, or how to make thoughtful decisions during what is often an emotionally charged time.

Starting January 1, 2026, several federal tax law changes will affect how individual donors can deduct charitable contributions. 

Whether you itemize or take the standard deduction, these new federal tax rules will affect how your donations are treated, potentially changing when, how, and how much you give. From a brand-new deduction for non-itemizers to updated limits for high earners, understanding what’s ahead can help you make the most of your generosity. 

Here’s a breakdown of what’s changing and what you should consider before and after the new rules take effect. 

As we embark on 2026, we at Carnegie reflect on a resilient 2025 that saw the S&P 500 deliver solid gains amid headwinds such as tariffs and government budget cutbacks. The market tested many investors through sharp headlines portraying market news and pullbacks as dramatic declines, such as "Dow plummets 500 points," often representing less than 1% moves.  

Our take? Headline-driven commentary is designed to elicit an emotional response (to drive clicks!), but it is often the best time to remember your time horizon. Over longer horizons of 1, 5, or 10 years, these fluctuations pale in comparison to the power of compounding in quality investments. At Carnegie, we remain focused on identifying continual compounders striving to build wealth steadily through economic cycles. 

As we enter 2026, maintaining discipline amid noise remains key, emphasizing long-term horizons over reactionary moves. Below, we share a few larger themes we are watching as we turn the page on 2025. 

For much of the past two years, holding cash felt like a rational long-term strategy. Money market funds offered yields of around 5%, and investors were paid to hold cash. Some investors found it particularly attractive after enduring years of near zero short-term rates. That environment has now changed, and the shift is structural rather than temporary. 

The IRS recently announced several updates that will shape tax and financial planning in both 2025 and 2026. These include higher retirement plan contribution limits, adjustments to tax brackets, and increases to the standard deduction. These changes give you more room to save and more opportunities to manage your tax bill. 

What We're Watching in December 

 With only a month to go before the end of 2025, the financial markets experienced unexpected twists and turns that many didn’t expect during the year. Seasonal trends were cast out the window, economic signals sent mixed messages, and the promise of an AI boom was continually met with skepticism. In the face of this, we at Carnegie continue to focus on clarity, balance, and long-term discipline. From Fed policy and AI spending to the real story behind inflation, here’s what we’re watching closely as the year draws to a close. 

OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, expects to end 2025 with an annualized run rate of revenue over $20 billion; its fourth quarter revenue will be about $5B. OpenAI’s CEO Sam Altman predicts revenue will grow to hundreds of billions by 2030. 2030 is also when the company is guiding positive free cash flow. Essentially, the company will have cash after paying all operating and maintenance costs. The common definition of free cash flow is Cash from Operations (CFO) minus Capital Expenditures.