As we approach mid-summer, investors find themselves navigating two powerful forces: excitement and expectations. From headline-grabbing IPOs to the continued enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence (“AI”), markets are once again being shaped by a combination of innovation, optimism, and speculation. While these themes have helped propel stocks higher, they also serve as a reminder of an enduring investing principle: enthusiasm alone is not a substitute for fundamentals.

In our July commentary, we want to devote time examining the surge in mega-cap IPO activity, what earnings season may reveal about AI-related valuations, the evolving interest rate landscape, and where opportunities may exist beyond the technology sector.

Following the Federal Reserve's most recent meeting on June 17, 2026, it appears increasingly likely that the Fed's next move will be to raise interest rates rather than cut them. New Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh underscored that possibility with a clear commitment to fighting inflation, stating:

"The Committee will deliver price stability."

He went on to acknowledge:

"We've missed for five years, and we're going to fix that."

Those comments suggest the Fed's primary focus remains controlling inflation, even if that means maintaining higher interest rates for longer or raising rates further. While interest rate policy can seem like an abstract topic discussed by economists and financial markets, Fed decisions ultimately affect nearly every consumer.

Inflation was largely an afterthought for many years. The dollar experienced an average inflation rate of 2.1% per year between 2000 and 2020. During that period, retirees rarely had to worry about inflation eroding their purchasing power. That changed during the COVID-era inflation surge, when inflation averaged 4.7% in 2021 and 8.0% in 2022, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

While inflation has moderated from its recent highs, the experience served as an important reminder that rising prices can present a significant risk for retirees. Unlike those still in the workforce, retirees generally cannot rely on salary increases to offset higher costs. Instead, retirement income and investment portfolios must support spending needs over what may be a retirement lasting 20, 30, or even 40 years.

As we move into the summer months, investors continue to navigate a market environment shaped by rapid technological change, geopolitical uncertainty, and shifting economic expectations. While markets have remained resilient beneath the surface, there are growing signs that investors should remain thoughtful and disciplined in how they approach risk and opportunity in the second half of the year.

This month we examine the growing concentration around artificial intelligence investments, the evolving interest rate outlook, the changing consumer landscape, and what the current economic environment may mean for younger workers entering the labor force.

As we move into May, one of the most familiar phrases in investing tends to resurface: “Sell in May and go away.” This year, that saying may not apply. While headlines remain filled with geopolitical tension and economic uncertainties, the market itself continues to show a notable degree of resilience. Here’s what the Carnegie Investment Team is honing in on for the month.

As we move into April, several familiar forces are converging at once. Tax season is coming to a close, earnings season is set to begin, and renewed geopolitical tensions are influencing markets — most visibly through energy prices. While these may appear to be separate headlines, they are interconnected parts of a broader environment the market is working to process. This is typical for this time of year: periods of short-term uncertainty often emerge even as the underlying, longer-term foundation remains more stable than the headlines suggest.

 From a seasonal perspective, March is not typically known for any major changes in market dynamics. The month is often quieter with tax season emerging, earnings season’s completion, and investors analyzing early-year market direction. Despite the lack of obvious activity, several meaningful developments are unfolding that warrant our investment team’s attention. 

The new year is off to a brisk start, and January has already delivered signs that 2026 may diverge meaningfully from last year’s narrow, tech‑driven rally. Value stocks are leading the way so far, while policy developments from the Trump Administration continue to shape economic headlines. Although it’s still early, we’re closely watching a clear shift in market dynamics to begin to take hold. 

As we embark on 2026, we at Carnegie reflect on a resilient 2025 that saw the S&P 500 deliver solid gains amid headwinds such as tariffs and government budget cutbacks. The market tested many investors through sharp headlines portraying market news and pullbacks as dramatic declines, such as "Dow plummets 500 points," often representing less than 1% moves.  

Our take? Headline-driven commentary is designed to elicit an emotional response (to drive clicks!), but it is often the best time to remember your time horizon. Over longer horizons of 1, 5, or 10 years, these fluctuations pale in comparison to the power of compounding in quality investments. At Carnegie, we remain focused on identifying continual compounders striving to build wealth steadily through economic cycles. 

As we enter 2026, maintaining discipline amid noise remains key, emphasizing long-term horizons over reactionary moves. Below, we share a few larger themes we are watching as we turn the page on 2025. 

The idea of the U.S. government taking direct ownership stakes in private companies felt largely anathema to the nation's capitalist ideals. Yet, the current administration is increasingly embracing a more active role in the private sector. This isn't about regulation or tax incentives; it's about direct investment and influence, echoing—but diverging from—past interventions.