A recent report from The Wall Street Journal highlighted that OpenAI fell short of some of its internal expectations for user growth and revenue in 2026. In addition, ChatGPT did not reach its goal of one billion weekly active users by the end of 2025, instead finishing the year with an estimated ~800 million.

As we move into May, one of the most familiar phrases in investing tends to resurface: “Sell in May and go away.” This year, that saying may not apply. While headlines remain filled with geopolitical tension and economic uncertainties, the market itself continues to show a notable degree of resilience. Here’s what the Carnegie Investment Team is honing in on for the month.

As we move into April, several familiar forces are converging at once. Tax season is coming to a close, earnings season is set to begin, and renewed geopolitical tensions are influencing markets — most visibly through energy prices. While these may appear to be separate headlines, they are interconnected parts of a broader environment the market is working to process. This is typical for this time of year: periods of short-term uncertainty often emerge even as the underlying, longer-term foundation remains more stable than the headlines suggest.

 From a seasonal perspective, March is not typically known for any major changes in market dynamics. The month is often quieter with tax season emerging, earnings season’s completion, and investors analyzing early-year market direction. Despite the lack of obvious activity, several meaningful developments are unfolding that warrant our investment team’s attention. 

The new year is off to a brisk start, and January has already delivered signs that 2026 may diverge meaningfully from last year’s narrow, tech‑driven rally. Value stocks are leading the way so far, while policy developments from the Trump Administration continue to shape economic headlines. Although it’s still early, we’re closely watching a clear shift in market dynamics to begin to take hold. 

After several years of strong market performance, it’s natural for investors to wonder what comes next. 

Will this continue? 
Are we due for a downturn? 
What should investors realistically expect in 2026? 

Let’s not pretend that not even the best analysts and researchers can look into the future and tell you exactly what markets will do next year. But what we can do, and what can offer both clues and confidence, is investigate the past. History offers something far more useful than predictions: perspective. 

Let’s explore some valuable insights and patterns from the past that might help frame more realistic expectations for 2026 and better prepare investors to respond thoughtfully to whatever this year brings. 

As we embark on 2026, we at Carnegie reflect on a resilient 2025 that saw the S&P 500 deliver solid gains amid headwinds such as tariffs and government budget cutbacks. The market tested many investors through sharp headlines portraying market news and pullbacks as dramatic declines, such as "Dow plummets 500 points," often representing less than 1% moves.  

Our take? Headline-driven commentary is designed to elicit an emotional response (to drive clicks!), but it is often the best time to remember your time horizon. Over longer horizons of 1, 5, or 10 years, these fluctuations pale in comparison to the power of compounding in quality investments. At Carnegie, we remain focused on identifying continual compounders striving to build wealth steadily through economic cycles. 

As we enter 2026, maintaining discipline amid noise remains key, emphasizing long-term horizons over reactionary moves. Below, we share a few larger themes we are watching as we turn the page on 2025. 

For much of the past two years, holding cash felt like a rational long-term strategy. Money market funds offered yields of around 5%, and investors were paid to hold cash. Some investors found it particularly attractive after enduring years of near zero short-term rates. That environment has now changed, and the shift is structural rather than temporary. 

What We're Watching in December 

 With only a month to go before the end of 2025, the financial markets experienced unexpected twists and turns that many didn’t expect during the year. Seasonal trends were cast out the window, economic signals sent mixed messages, and the promise of an AI boom was continually met with skepticism. In the face of this, we at Carnegie continue to focus on clarity, balance, and long-term discipline. From Fed policy and AI spending to the real story behind inflation, here’s what we’re watching closely as the year draws to a close. 

OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, expects to end 2025 with an annualized run rate of revenue over $20 billion; its fourth quarter revenue will be about $5B. OpenAI’s CEO Sam Altman predicts revenue will grow to hundreds of billions by 2030. 2030 is also when the company is guiding positive free cash flow. Essentially, the company will have cash after paying all operating and maintenance costs. The common definition of free cash flow is Cash from Operations (CFO) minus Capital Expenditures.