What Investors Should Know About the SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic IPOs

There are multiple mega-cap companies planning an initial public offering (“IPO”) during the remainder of 2026.

The Exciting Potential

SpaceX, Elon Musk’s space transportation company, filed its initial registration statement with the SEC last week, giving the first true insight into its financials. The company is targeting to raise more than $75 billion at a valuation of about $2 trillion.

OpenAI (ChatGPT) and Anthropic (Claude) are also expected to go public this fall. Anthropic’s most recent valuation was $965 billion, and OpenAI’s was $830 billion.

These valuations would place SpaceX as one of the ten largest public companies in the world, with Anthropic and OpenAI not far behind.

Despite the enormous valuations attached to these companies, there are still risks. SpaceX’s first-quarter revenue grew 15% year over year to $4.7 billion, with most of that revenue coming from Starlink, which provides broadband connectivity through a constellation of low-Earth orbit satellites to customers in remote and underserved areas globally. The company’s remaining revenue is generated by its reusable rockets delivering payloads into space for government and commercial customers.

The Enormous Expectations

However, the company is positioning itself as more than Starlink and rockets, and its valuation is largely tied to artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. SpaceX currently operates what the company claims to be the largest AI training data center clusters in the world, called Colossus I and Colossus II. The SEC filing revealed a $1.25 billion per month deal with Anthropic for access to these data centers, which could generate $40 billion through May 2029. The catch is the deal is actually a 180-day lease and not a long-term contract, meaning the $40 billion is far from guaranteed.

However, SpaceX’s valuation relies on the construction of data centers beyond Colossus I & II, and even beyond earth. The long-term goal of deploying AI compute infrastructure in orbit, leveraging the sun as a power source and its own rockets for low-cost, high-cadence deployment, is the true driver of SpaceX’s valuation. The company plans to deploy orbital AI compute satellites as early as 2028, although Musk is often aggressive with his timelines and Jeff Bezos called the timeline ambitious. This future potential revenue comes at a cost today, which is why $4.7 billion in first-quarter revenue still resulted in negative operating earnings. Free cash flow, which accounts for capital expenditures of $10 billion, was negative $9 billion.

The Speculative Reality

In addition to the short track record creating uncertainty, there can be trading issues after an IPO. The number of shares available to the public is often limited, artificially driving up the price. SpaceX is only selling $75 billion of its $2 trillion worth of shares, meaning only about 5% of the company will be available to trade. The company may also be fast-tracked into the S&P 500, which could require index funds to add shares within six months instead of the normal twelve months (or more depending on profitability). In short, the tradable float will be extremely thin, which, combined with anticipated index inclusion demand, could create significant supply-and-demand imbalances in early trading.

Over the long term, the true value of these companies will be revealed as investors are given more time to evaluate the underlying stories, the real growth potential, and more shares are available to trade. This is also a reminder that not all IPOs are success stories. Beyond Meat was supposed to be the future of food, with its plant-based protein burgers, sausage, and other products. The company debuted in May 2019 around $70 per share, climbed to almost $250 over the next two months, and then began a decline to under $1 per share. Rivian, the next-generation electric vehicle company, debuted in November 2021 and quickly climbed from about $80 to almost $180. The company has traded lower ever since and now sits at $15 per share.

These mega-IPOs are unique in their size, but they still come with the risks of all IPOs. Each company should be evaluated on its own merits and not simply assumed to be a successful investment because of its size.

For informational purposes only. The information is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations, and the information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. 

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