Carnegie Market Blog

Death of the Bundle?

Posted by Brent Luce on Aug 8, 2015 4:30:00 PM
The market was abuzz today about the “death of the bundle” as media stocks dropped on weak cable subscriber data.  We all know people who have dumped cable in favor of streaming services and I have observed that my 14-year old kids watch most of their television via streaming services.   Since 2010, 13- to 24-year olds have cut their traditional television viewership by 32 percent, while 25- to 34-year olds are watching 23 percent less traditional television.  Meanwhile, high-flying stock Netflix stock (below) has moved up almost 20x since 2012 and has been hitting new all-time highs on a daily basis.  The question is whether the market is getting ahead of itself or are we are truly seeing a rapid and permanent change in the cable industry?

 Netflix (NFLX) since 2012
Netflix (NFLX) since 2012
 

Pimco Total Return Fund

The Pimco Total Return Fund was once the largest mutual fund in the world.  Since its peak in April 2013, the fund has seen net withdrawals for 27 straight months straight, reducing the fund to a third of its former size.  Interestingly, the largest bond fund in the world is now a passive, index-based Vanguard bond fund. 

Pimco Total Return Fund Withdrawals - Bloomberg  

MLPs and Oil

Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) have been quite weak in the past year.  There has been some discussion related to whether these stocks are more affected by oil prices or interest rates.  While the argument can be made that higher rate expectations would be a headwind for these high-yield stocks, there is no doubt that looking back, oil prices are the main driver of these stocks.  The chart below shows a popular MLP ETF versus oil prices.  On the top of the chart below, one can see that they move roughly in tandem; the bottom shows the positive correlation between the two. 

 MLPs and Oil
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Brent Luce

Written by Brent Luce

Brent Luce Senior Portfolio Manager Cleveland, OH. Brent serves Carnegie Investment Counsel as Senior Portfolio Manager. Brent manages custom portfolios for select clients and is an integral part of Carnegie’s investment selection and portfolio structuring processes. He is also author of the “Carnegie Market Blog”. Email Brent at bluce@carnegieinvest.com.

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