Volatility vs Long-Term Trends
Volatility in the market has spiked during the last month, coinciding with the Trump Administration’s tariff rollout. The rollout has been accompanied by shifting levels in the tariff, uncertainty when and where they will be implemented, and an escalating trade war with China. Equities have reacted negatively leading to headlines indicating how far the indexes have fallen off the peak.
The resulting chart can be a little unsettling.
The above chart using Bloomberg data shows the daily S&P 500 price since January 31st, illustrating the drop over the last three months. It’s a daily chart, so it also shows the dramatic fall due to the Trump Administration’s initial tariff announcement on April 2nd.
Of course, now is a good time to step back and look at longer-term trends. The chart below shows monthly trends since December 2019, which includes the COVID-19 virus shutdown.
The chart shows the long-term upward trend in the market using monthly S&P 500 prices from Bloomberg, even with a global shutdown and tariff uncertainty thrown in. The annualized return of the market over this time period is 12.2% for a total return of over 80%.
Despite the inherent volatility in the market, it continues to be a great way to possibly generate wealth. This traces back to the underlying companies that make up the market. The companies are dynamic operators continually looking to grow earnings, despite obstacles along the way. As earnings grow and dividends are paid, the market has the potential to appreciate and grow investor wealth.
Short-term volatility can be painful, but the long-term trend is positive.
Disclosures:
For general informational purposes only. Opinions referenced are as of the date of the email and may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. The discussions, outlook, and viewpoints featured are not intended to be investment advice and do not consider specific investment objectives or risk tolerance you may have. All investments involve risks, including the loss of principal.
Reference to Indexes
An index is a group of specific securities (such as the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq composite), the performance of which is often used as a benchmark in judging the relative performance of certain asset classes. Indexes are unmanaged portfolios and investors cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance is neither a guarantee nor indicative of future results.
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