Carnegie Investment Counsel Blog


More Than Just Another Crowd

Posted by Raz Pounardjian on Jul 27, 2018 8:32:00 AM

As many of you know, I am fascinated as to why people make the choices and decisions they make. Many people who work in our industry are focused on valuation ratios, dividends, profitability ratios, balance sheets and charts. With data becoming so easily and readily available these days, I think the extra “edge” these data points produce is becoming smaller and smaller. I believe one area of investing that remains important and useful is sentiment. Digging a little deeper, one can find some interesting cross-currents between expected returns and investor sentiment.

What exactly is investor sentiment? In the most basic sense, investor sentiment is how investors feel about the overall direction of the markets or a particular stock.

One way in which investor sentiment is measured is through the AAII Sentiment Survey. This is a widely cited survey and AAII stands for the American Association of Individual Investors. This association is made up of roughly 150,000 investors, with the average member being in their mid-60s with a median portfolio over $1M. Every week, the AAII surveys about 300 members asking them if they feel bullish, neutral or bearish about the direction of the stock market for the next 6 months.

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Topics: Investing, S&P 500, Cryptocurrencies

Sector Performance, Smartphones & March Madness

Posted by Raz Pounardjian on Mar 28, 2017 4:45:31 PM

Checking in at the quarter mile mark

With about 1/4th of the year almost over, I thought it would be good to check in on what market sectors are performing the best and worst thus far in 2017. Below is a table that shows the S&P 500 return YTD and each sector of the S&P 500. It is interesting to note that the sector that most Wall Street strategists recommended buying at the start of this year (financials) is underperforming the overall market. Also, other so-called “Trump Trade” sectors such as industrials and energy are underperforming so far. On the other side of the coin, consumer staples and utilities were universally unloved by this same group, yet they are outperforming the S&P 500. We don’t want to draw too much from this but it is nonetheless something to note, especially considering how often we hear about narratives in regards to price action on Wall Street. See the previous 2017 Stock Market Contest Blog

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Topics: TV, Sectors, NCAA, S&P 500, performance, "Trump Trade", Smartphone

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