The Big S-Curve

The most common things that typical market observers are currently worried about (partially fueled by the media) revolve around politics, the trade war, interest rates and the timing/depth of the next recession.

It is much less common to hear someone talking about the potential positives. Fears like this are nothing new, and in fact, I cannot remember a time in my career when there wasn't a slew of fears to worry about.

Anyone who follows the equity markets on a stock by stock (or company by company) basis (like me) has likely noticed that the market has experienced a clear shift in behavior since early September.

Some examples of this include:

• Significant strength in the Financial sector with many financial stocks hitting all-time highs
• Significant strength in Industrials, with many at new highs
• A clear shift toward value stocks and away from smaller/newer growth stocks
• A shift away from the previous winners and into the previous losers
• Many of the “S-Curve” plays – see blog from 11/4/19 – have declined
• Weakness in REITS, utilities and consumer staples stocks 
• All-time highs in the major market indices

The Uber IPO is a hot topic among investors today. Uber Technologies, Inc’s IPO is expected to be priced Thursday and to start trading Friday.

Even on the secondary market, with no profits and based on other analytics, it is a company that we would consider to be speculative in nature.

That isn’t to say it won’t do well for a period of time…as some bets do…but the fundamentals would not put it on our buy list at this time. Without further ado, here are the 10 reasons we feel that the Uber IPO is a sucker’s bet.