Carnegie Market Blog


Longest Bull Market Ever?

Posted by Brent Luce on Aug 24, 2018 3:01:38 PM

Longest Bull Market Ever?

The media is talking about how we are now in the longest bull market in history.  By the definitions they have decided to use to determine bull and bear markets, this is true…barely.  It is true that on a closing price basis, the S&P 500 has not experienced a 20% decline since 2009.  This headline implies that stocks have been smooth sailing for almost a decade and that we are now in dangerous territory.  What they are not discussing is that for 14 years (see chart below), the S&P 500 did nothing.  That is quite a long time, and one might expect a prolonged period of strength to follow.  Another alternative view is that from 2009-2014, the market was merely recovering from a prolonged period of weakness.  It did not start making new highs until mid-2013, which means that we are only five years into new market territory.  READ MORE:  What Does the Longest Bull Market Mean?  A Debate

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Topics: Bull Market, public transportation

Pokemon and the New Bull Market

Posted by Brent Luce on Jul 20, 2016 3:58:00 PM

The New Bull Market?

As I type this, the major U.S. stock market indices, even if they are not perfect indicators like I alluded to above, are at all-time highs.  While all of the headlines are negative, the market has been able to power to new highs; this is typically a bullish sign.  Most bull markets top out after everyone is complacent and has bought into the idea of stocks going up to the moon – this is hardly the case right now.  In a related note, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a new high all five days of last week.  This is the first time this has occurred in almost 20 years.   MORE: Stock Market's New High -- A Record About Nothing

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Topics: Bull Market, Market Cap Weighting, Pokemon

Brexit Stage Left

Posted by Brent Luce on Jul 8, 2016 4:54:03 PM

Brexit Stage Left

 In the last blog, I asked whether this would mark the beginning of a major downturn or just be a blip.  Just like many other emotional moments, very few investors would have guessed that it would be a blip.  So far, at least as far as the U.S. market is concerned, it has been a blip.  In fact, as I type this, the S&P 500 is at an all-time high.   As the market crosses new highs, there is broad participation among sectors, sentiment is hardly exuberant and all the headlines are negative – historically, these are bullish signals.  MORE:  S&P 500 Heads for Record High 

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Topics: Non-Farm Payrolls, Brexit, Bull Market

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