Carnegie Market Blog


Shark Week, All-Time Highs and Dollar Weakness

Posted by Brent Luce on Jul 27, 2017 9:25:09 AM

Shark Week

As some of you know, I was away on my annual family trip to Cape Cod last week, which is why it has been longer than usual since you received your last blog from me.  This is not market related, but since it is “Shark Week”, I thought I would share my own shark related story.  Back in 1972, after a dramatic decline in population, the U.S. government banned the killing of seals.  Since then, not surprisingly, the seal population in Cape Cod has blossomed.  Cape Cod is a perfect place for them because the entire outer beach is protected by the National Seashore, and as such, there are no houses and only sparsely populated beaches with miles of empty beach in between.  In the past several years, as more and more seals are on the beaches, it has attracted a new wonder of nature – the Great White Shark.  I guess what is happening is sort of like the market or economy, except it is Mother Nature’s economy.  Humans have altered the supply and demand equation, and now that we are protecting the seals, we have increased supply to the point that the consumer (Great White Sharks) have identified an easy to attain product that they demand.

Just a few years ago, seeing or hearing about a Great White in these waters was uncommon.  Today, there are verified sightings of them virtually every day on the Cape.  Anyhow, on one of the “perfect” beach days we had last week, as we were boogie boarding on the relatively small waves, the lifeguards sounded off three blasts of an air horn.  The result was a scenario right out of the movie “Jaws”.  Everyone frantically ran out of the water as quickly as humanly possible – I wish I had recorded it, as that video would have gone viral.  Sure enough, there was a Great White Shark only 50 yards offshore spotted by the shark plane; they actually fly planes up and down the coast looking for sharks.  The sighting was followed by a tagging boat from which a scientist was throwing what looked like a spear into the water in effort to tag the Great White.  So far, they have tagged almost 200 of these things off the Cape and they are constantly tagging more of them.  The screenshot from my phone below shows a map of the confirmed unique Great White Shark sightings just in the past month:

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Topics: Stock Market, U.S. Dollar, Market Cycles

Dividend Stock Bubble?

Posted by Brent Luce on Mar 17, 2016 3:36:45 PM

Happy St. Patrick’s Day

Today is a big day in Cleveland, Ohio.  Our St. Patrick’s day celebration, which started in 1867, is one of the oldest and largest in the country with over 500,000 people all converging on downtown Cleveland.  For those taking notes, 500,000 is now more than the population of Cleveland proper.

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Topics: U.S. Dollar, Dividend Paying Stocks, Consumer Staples

Facebook is Now Bigger than the Largest Country on Earth

Posted by Brent Luce on Feb 12, 2016 3:36:54 PM

Facebook is Everywhere

Many people have a hard time believing that Facebook is now almost a $300 billion (by market capitalization) company.  I happened to be looking at the diagram below on Ford Motor Co., which shows their top ten quantified customers and suppliers.  Fully expecting to see companies like Lear, Johnson Controls, steelmakers and other obvious choices, I was surprised to see Facebook.  The fact that Facebook shows up as one of Ford Motor Company’s largest quantified vendors is a testament to what an incredible marketing engine Facebook is and that companies are willing to pay for that exposure.  MORE:  Facebook is Now Bigger than the Largest Country on Earth

This of course leads to the next question, which is “What does this diagram look like with Facebook in the middle?”—Interestingly, their largest customers are a “who’s who” of massive consumer-related companies:


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Topics: U.S. Dollar, Insider Buying, Market Bottom

There’s a New Sheriff in Town

Posted by Brent Luce on Feb 4, 2016 4:03:56 PM

New Sheriff

My plan was to talk about how there is a “New Sheriff in Town” as Google, aka Alphabet, has taken over as the most valuable (by market cap) company in the world.  Unfortunately, this state only lasted a day and Apple has taken back the crown, at least temporarily.  The chart below shows GE, Exxon Mobil, Apple and Google since the beginning of the century.  A mere fifteen years ago, Google was not even a public company and Apple was barely surviving.  They have since surpassed two companies that for generations were considered the biggest and best companies on the planet.  I wonder what a chart like this will look like in another 15 years?  RELATED:  The Rise and Fall of the Largest Corporation in History 

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Topics: Oil, U.S. Dollar

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