Carnegie Market Blog

 

Cryptos, Low Vol and Wall Street “Experts”

Posted by Brent Luce on Dec 15, 2017 4:04:36 PM

Cryptocurrencies

 Two weeks ago, I talked about bitcoin in my blog.  Here is what I said:

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Topics: Volatility, Strategist Predictions, Bitcoin, Blockchain, Wall Street, Cryptocurrencies

2017 Stock Market Contest

Posted by Brent Luce on Jan 17, 2017 4:43:23 PM

 

Stock Market Contest

Now is the time of year where people like to make predictions about the coming year, so please make your guess for the 2017 (12/31/2017 closing price on S&P 500) stock market contest by responding to this email or clicking here. You must respond before the next blog, which will likely be next week.  I hope many of you answer so we can have some “big data” on this subject matter.  Here is a five-year chart of the S&P 500 to help frame your guess:

S&P 500 (Five Years)

Congratulations to Todd Maugans, the 2016 winner who guessed 2240 – the S&P 500 ended up at 2238.83, so he was very close.  Interestingly, last year, the blog readers were somewhat bearish, guessing only a two percent rise in the market.  It turns out that the market beat 97% of your guesses (see chart below).  Last year’s guesses were split into two distinct groups, although even the bullish group mostly underestimated the end result.  I have some theories on how this year’s guesses will turn out, but I will keep those to myself so I do not bias you.  

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Topics: $GOOGL, Interest Rates, Strategist Predictions, Stock Market Contest, $DPZ, $AMZN

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