The anxiously awaited results of the 2017 stock market survey are in! The good news is that the blog readers appear to be equally as smart as the leading Wall Street strategists, who are rewarded with seven or eight figure salaries. The bad news is that the blog readers are stuck with the same guess as the strategists, who are very frequently wrong. The median guess of my readers was 2401 -- the most common guess of the ten superstar Wall Street Analysts was 2400, so we hit that right on the mark. Below, is a histogram of the guesses. As you can see, there were very few “flat” responses, lots of “up a little” responses, and a smattering of “down” guesses. In the table below, looking at history, it becomes evident that market returns do not occur in a normal distribution, although the guesses would suggest people think that they do. In fact, the seemingly safe bet of “up 0% to 10%” only has occurred about 1/4th of the time over the past 50 years, but almost half of the respondents (and Wall Street) guessed in this range. Historically speaking, “down” and “up 20%+” are just as common as “up 0-10%”. Given those two options, which would you choose?