Carnegie Market Blog


There’s a New Sheriff in Town

Posted by Brent Luce on Feb 4, 2016 4:03:56 PM

New Sheriff

My plan was to talk about how there is a “New Sheriff in Town” as Google, aka Alphabet, has taken over as the most valuable (by market cap) company in the world.  Unfortunately, this state only lasted a day and Apple has taken back the crown, at least temporarily.  The chart below shows GE, Exxon Mobil, Apple and Google since the beginning of the century.  A mere fifteen years ago, Google was not even a public company and Apple was barely surviving.  They have since surpassed two companies that for generations were considered the biggest and best companies on the planet.  I wonder what a chart like this will look like in another 15 years?  RELATED:  The Rise and Fall of the Largest Corporation in History 

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Topics: Oil, U.S. Dollar

Uber Interstates

Posted by Brent Luce on Oct 6, 2015 4:30:00 PM

Texas Tea

As you may have noticed, energy stocks and particularly MLPs have moved sharply higher since the new quarter started last week.  Whether this is a “dead cat bounce” remains to be seen.  Consensus thought has been that even though rig counts are down, efficiency gains have meant that production itself has not dropped.  With that in mind, I thought the chart below might be interesting.  It shows a dramatic reduction in U.S. rig count, which I showed in a recent blog, along with U.S. crude oil production.  As you can see, production has begun to tick down.  Will it end up being just a tick, or are we on the verge of a measurable drop in production? 

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Topics: Oil, Business, Mutual Funds

Tesla, Oil, and a Rate Hike?

Posted by Brent Luce on Sep 14, 2015 4:00:00 PM

Rig Count

I have shown oil price charts a number of times in previous blogs, but I have not highlighted rig counts for a while.  In the chart below, the white line is oil prices and the yellow line is the number of active oil and gas rigs operating worldwide.  Historically, and not surprisingly, major declines in oil prices have been followed by major declines in rig counts.  This time is no exception.  The current rig count decline has been as big and as steep as any decline since the 1980s.  

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Topics: Oil, Fed

Death of the Bundle?

Posted by Brent Luce on Aug 8, 2015 4:30:00 PM

The market was abuzz today about the “death of the bundle” as media stocks dropped on weak cable subscriber data.  We all know people who have dumped cable in favor of streaming services and I have observed that my 14-year old kids watch most of their television via streaming services.   Since 2010, 13- to 24-year olds have cut their traditional television viewership by 32 percent, while 25- to 34-year olds are watching 23 percent less traditional television.  Meanwhile, high-flying stock Netflix stock (below) has moved up almost 20x since 2012 and has been hitting new all-time highs on a daily basis.  The question is whether the market is getting ahead of itself or are we are truly seeing a rapid and permanent change in the cable industry?

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Topics: Oil, TV

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