Carnegie Market Blog

 

Blockchain, the Four and Brick and Mortar Retailers

Posted by Brent Luce on Nov 27, 2017 3:46:55 PM

BITCOIN

The bitcoin craze continues.  As of today, bitcoin is valued at almost $10,000.   This is up from about $800 at the beginning of the year and $20 in 2013.  There are many of people who believe this is a great investment, others who think it is a massive speculative bubble, and more who have no idea what the deal is with Bitcoin or blockchain.  Last month a publicly traded biotech company decided to change its name to include the word “blockchain” change their focus to “buying cryptocurrency and blockchain businesses”.  That change alone caused the stock price to quintuple in a short time.  While Bitcoin itself may or may not be in a speculative bubble, the technology it is built on, blockchain, is quite promising.  Blockchain technology has wide implications and may turn out to be an integral piece of the technology revolution we have entered.  Here is an interesting and non-technical TED Talk explaining How The Blockchain Will Radically Transform The Economy  

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Topics: Retail, $GOOGL, $AAPL, $AMZN, The Four, $WMT, Scott Galloway, Bitcoin, Blockchain, $FB

Pumpkin Roll and Big Tech Boom

Posted by Brent Luce on Oct 27, 2017 4:38:12 PM

Big Tech Boom

Microsoft, Amazon.com and Google all reported earnings last night and all beat expectations.  Many, including myself, believe that we are in the early innings of a new technological revolution.  Unlike past revolutions where new companies displace the complacent incumbents, it may be that this time around the incumbents (Amazon, Facebook, Google, Microsoft, Apple, etc.) actually lead the way into the new paradigm.  These companies have scale, massive R&D budgets and are so far leading the way in artificial intelligence, cloud computing and big data.  Here are some factoids related to today’s big moves in these stocks: 

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Topics: $GOOGL, Interest Rates, $AMZN, Big Tech, #MSFT, Pumpkin Roll

2017 Stock Market Contest

Posted by Brent Luce on Jan 17, 2017 4:43:23 PM

 

Stock Market Contest

Now is the time of year where people like to make predictions about the coming year, so please make your guess for the 2017 (12/31/2017 closing price on S&P 500) stock market contest by responding to this email or clicking here. You must respond before the next blog, which will likely be next week.  I hope many of you answer so we can have some “big data” on this subject matter.  Here is a five-year chart of the S&P 500 to help frame your guess:

S&P 500 (Five Years)

Congratulations to Todd Maugans, the 2016 winner who guessed 2240 – the S&P 500 ended up at 2238.83, so he was very close.  Interestingly, last year, the blog readers were somewhat bearish, guessing only a two percent rise in the market.  It turns out that the market beat 97% of your guesses (see chart below).  Last year’s guesses were split into two distinct groups, although even the bullish group mostly underestimated the end result.  I have some theories on how this year’s guesses will turn out, but I will keep those to myself so I do not bias you.  

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Topics: $GOOGL, Interest Rates, Strategist Predictions, Stock Market Contest, $DPZ, $AMZN

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