Carnegie Market Blog

America's Got Talent

Posted by Brent Luce on Apr 14, 2016 4:58:52 PM

Elon Musk

In the last blog, I mentioned the incredible launch of the new Tesla Model 3.  Last Friday, while most of America was watching the Kardashians, the Masters or “America’s Got Talent” SpaceX accomplished arguably the most important advancement in space technology since man walked on the moon.  Reusability has been one of the major hurdles in space flight.  Last week, SpaceX was able to launch a spaceship and land its autonomous booster rocket on a drone barge floating in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean.  Click Here to watch video of the landing.  It may be that when we look back, we will point to the Tesla Model 3 launch as the day that electric vehicles went mainstream and that the tipping point for space travel for non-astronauts started the day SpaceX landed a drone rocket on a drone barge in the middle of the ocean.  Of course there is a long way to go on both fronts, but the ball is in motion.   So what do these two historic event have in common?  Elon Musk.  He is the brains behind both SpaceX and Tesla, and oh yeah, he was a founder of Paypal, too!  It was quite a week for Elon Musk, his show is the real “America’s Got Talent”.  More:  Why this is a big deal

Falcon 9 Lands on Drone Barge
Falcon 9 Lands on Drone Barge

Market Laggards

Most people like to think about market dynamics based on the calendar.  Market cycles, however, do not care much about the calendar.  The general opinion of most market observers/participants is that consumer staples and utilities stocks are among the strongest sectors.  While this is likely true on a year-to-date basis and during the recent market weakness, since the February market low, these are actually the weakest sectors.  Additionally, this month, as the market has powered higher, these sectors are actually down, not just “less strong”.

Staples and utilities are not as strong as you might think:
Staples and utilities are not as strong as you might think:
 

Capacity Utilization

Capacity Utilization for March will be released tomorrow.  These readings have been weakening since the beginning of 2015 and another decline is expected in tomorrow’s release.  Historically speaking, sharp drop-offs in capacity utilization coincide with recessions.  As you can see in the chart below, the current situation is right on the bubble.  Bears think that this is a sign we are entering a recession, while bulls believe this is merely a temporary soft spot due largely due to the effects of lower energy prices.  Tomorrow’s reading probably will not deviate dramatically from expectations, but if it does, it will likely move the market accordingly.  MORE:  Industrial Recession?  Yes and No

Capacity Utilization (20 years)
Capacity Utilization (20 years)

 

Brent Luce

Written by Brent Luce

Brent Luce Senior Portfolio Manager Cleveland, OH. Brent serves Carnegie Investment Counsel as Senior Portfolio Manager. Brent manages custom portfolios for select clients and is an integral part of Carnegie’s investment selection and portfolio structuring processes. He is also author of the “Carnegie Market Blog”. Email Brent at bluce@carnegieinvest.com.

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