Carnegie Investment Counsel Blog

 

All I Know Is That I Don’t Know

Posted by Raz Pounardjian on Nov 28, 2017 9:33:00 AM

I was recently reading a blog about predictions and how often people are wrong in their predictions, whether it be about a particular stock, sports team or political event. Every baseball analyst on ESPN predicted that the Cleveland Indians would beat the New York Yankees in the ALDS this year and we all know how that played out. As a behavioral economics "junkie" and an avid reader, learning and participating in both the financial markets and sports, I often find myself trying to figure out ways in which I can increase my odds of being right about a particular event or stock. Notice that I am staying away from the word “prediction” because often people make predictions and don’t admit when they are wrong, or they are right but because they were lucky. Too often, we judge based on outcomes and not on process. 

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Topics: Stock picking

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